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The Changing Face of Terror: Spontaneous, Low-tech and Unpredictable


A COMPLEX WORLD VIEW

Over the past decade the world has borne witness to a number of pronounced changes in the international terrorist threat landscape. The events of 9/11 in 2001 have come to signify an important step change in global perceptions of the extremist threat, leaving a lasting legacy which has coloured the attitudes of Western security policy and, subsequently, their counter-terrorism efforts. While a similar atrocity of such magnitude has not been committed against the West since 9/11, a far less discernible but equally significant shift has occurred in the dynamics of terror and the motivations and techniques of transnational extremist elements. The catalyst for this shift has largely resulted from the nuanced and complex developments that have emerged as a consequence of the violent and protracted political struggle in Syria and its neighbouring countries. The impact of this shift, however, is by no means limited to the Middle East.

While Syria remains a momentary priority for the West and the predominant focus of its counter-terrorism campaigns, there exists a number of other regions provoking similar concerns. The unprecedented expansion of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) as a new global brand of highly organised terror in the Middle East now sees international attention once again firmly focussed on Iraq. Their aggressive agenda for territorial expansion and the establishment of a Caliphate State threatens to undo the efforts of over a decade of Western military intervention and state-building. Having already seized swaths of territory across northern and western regions, the struggle to regain control from ISIS is forcing the West to tread a fine line in its political positioning which consists of materially and strategically supporting internal defence forces whilst at the same time avoiding a recommitment of both US and allied military troops.

Moving away from the Middle East and the traditional concerns posed by extremist elements within Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, the extension of terrorist operations onto the African continent has produced a significant escalation in the threat of migrating terror movements pursuing a modified jihadist agenda, particularly on the East African coast. A number of prolific movements in Somalia, Kenya and Nigeria have gained considerable notoriety – primarily, Al Shabaab and Boko Haram – for being responsible for a number of high-profile kidnappings in addition to attacks on oil installations, towns, and religious communities. The proliferation of such terrorist organisations across not only sovereign borders but also across continents makes the prospect of their containment and elimination increasingly doubtful. As such, even if the situations in Syria and Iraq were to come to a peaceful resolution in the next few years, it is entirely possible, and probable, that extremist elements currently festering in these countries will simply move their operations to another location, such as Libya, spreading like a contagion wherever the conditions are hospitable. THE CHANGING FACE OF TERROR

So, what makes this new threat different from any other? Firstly, the situation in Syria signifies a paradigm shift in both the motivations of terrorist organisations and their modus operandi. For the last decade the Al Qaeda terrorist threat has consisted of a high degree of probability in relation to their target recruitment. Five years ago the proposition of travelling to a remote terrorist training camp in Afghanistan to enlist in terrorist activity would have been an incredibly difficult prospect, requiring an expansive network of connections and substantial resources to satisfy the numerous logistics involved in such an endeavour. However, the close proximity of Europe to Syria – coupled with the influence of the internet and the aggressive propaganda campaigns engineered by ISIS – have made the recruitment practices of extremist groups in the region extremely successful.

Determined to radicalise and recruit, the highly effective propaganda videos which are widely disseminated across the internet allow ISIS to reach into communities like never before. The alarming rate of radicalisation raises some concerning implications both socially in its impact on community cohesion, and logistically in terms of preventative counter-terrorism operations and intelligence. It is estimated that nearly half of those individuals travelling from the UK to fight in Syria have not previously been on the terrorism radars of either the UK authorities or any of the major international policing bodies. With many of these newly radicalised recruits displaying a wide range of vulnerable characteristics – from those suffering from mental health issues to those seeking to find an outlet for their own political, economic and social grievances – the internal threat of home-grown extremists has diversified considerably. Departing from the traditional characteristics that had come to typify the target cohort of previous terrorist movements, the future success of counter-terrorism efforts to identify potential individuals of concern, therefore, is likely to be complicated by this new volatility in the target set of extremist recruitment.

Accompanying this change in extremist profiling is the widening range of attack methods and their increasing spontaneity. Over the last decade, it had been a prevailing assumption among terrorist organisations that in order to achieve their political goals their methods had to be necessarily 'grand' in both scale and impact. These typically required considerable planning, technological application, and expenditure, and pursued the primary aim of causing the maximum loss of life whilst capturing the attention of the international media. While 'grand' plots involving high-impact targets remain a pressing concern for counter-terrorist police, there is an emerging trend which appears to break from this convention, indicating an increasing preference towards 'lone wolf', low-tech attacks.

Inspired by the horrific attack which took place in Woolwich in 2013 where two radicalised individuals brutally and fatally attacked British Fusilier Drummer Lee Rigby, terrorists – the world over – now realise that high-impact attacks can be achieved using nothing more than a knife and a smartphone. As a consequence, this development in attack methodology has led to an increase in the number of threats that the UK faces each year.

More concerning for counter-terrorism authorities, however, is the intelligence effort associated with the widening array of attacks that the UK now faces. As terrorist plots show increasing signs of being inspired - rather than orchestrated - by extremist elements abroad, it is becoming more difficult for counter-terrorism police to track and foil these plots before they come to fruition. In these cases, the classic intelligence gathering methods of relying on the 'eyes and ears' of the police and local communities has become impotent in this regard and, in many respects, redundant in response to the now evolving terrorist threat.

Intelligence gathering has been further complicated by the damaging revelations relating to government surveillance following the exposures made by whistle-blower Edward Snowden in 2013. The leaking of several thousand NSA documents which ignited a public out-cry over the surveillance practices of the US Government produced two particularly debilitating consequences for global counter-terrorism efforts. Primarily, the exposure of US intelligence practices has caused terrorist organisations across the globe to become more self-aware. In doing so, it has allowed terrorist networks to identify possible weaknesses in their communication methods and address these vulnerabilities thereby rendering their operations virtually undetectable. More importantly, however, the communications industry has become increasingly reluctant to work with governments in their counter-terrorism operations, ultimately leading to a degradation of intelligence. A CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM

In spite of these complicated developments on the international threat landscape there is a credible cause for optimism in combating the terrorist threat in the UK. Their long-standing experience of dealing with terrorism spans decades, dating back to the IRA campaigns that had wreaked terror on UK streets in the early 1970s. As a result, the UK has acquired valuable capacities and over-arching resilience in dealing with such security challenges. This has allowed them to accumulate a wide-ranging counter-terrorism capability that places them vastly ahead of their European counterparts. Having developed both the legislative framework to enable policing authorities to investigate, detain, question, and prosecute perpetrators of terrorism, and a fluent relationship between its security intelligence agencies and police forces, the UK can boast a relatively robust counter-terrorism strategy.

This counter-terrorism framework is, of course, reinforced by an effective model of community policing that is critical to the success of any modern and dynamic counter-terrorism strategy. The importance of community intelligence in detecting early signs of terrorist activity and individuals vulnerable to radicalisation is well documented within both policing and academic circles, and acts to compensate for the gaps in knowledge which are no longer obtainable through conventional intelligence gathering methods.

While in the past there had been considerable reluctance within a number of communities – most notably, the Islamic community – to come forward with information relating to possible acts of terror, recent displays of barbarism committed by ISIS and their portrayal within the international media have galvanised communities of all faiths to unite in a collective effort to combat terror. Fearing the loss of family members to the brutality of jihadist warfare in Syria, community co-operation with counter-terrorism forces has witnessed a marked increase in this past year alone and is likely continue along the same vein as the foothold of ISIS in the Middle East spreads, provoking optimism for the future of a successful UK counter-terrorism strategy.

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